MOTO eMAG's Game-Changing US Motorcycle Market "Woes" Series (Updated 6/7/23)

The US motorcycle market is very different from all other markets in the world. In India for example they sell 17M bikes a year. It's no wonder European brands are flocking there. We are a country of 320M and last year we purchased 17M new cars, SUVs and pickups. However, in the same year we bought only 470K motorcycles, including scooters and three-wheel vehicles (down from over a million units in '07). The US moto market has contracted or shrunk by about 60% in 10 years.

Bless The Boomers
The US moto market is shrinking and with new generations showing little interest in anything other than gadgets and video games it wouldn't take Nostradamus to see where our future is heading. In a previous article on MOTO eMAG, Bless the Boomers, I explained that the boomer generation is responsible for creating a massive outdoors-loving industry, such as riding, flying, boating, fishing and classic cars. With the boomers retiring and gradually passing on all these markets will weaken a great deal in the US.

What is the Woes Series?
The Woes series is about the future of our US moto industry that is under attack from all sides.

The Core Issues with US Motorcycle Market:

• Very small market compare to the automobile industry (annual units: 470K vs 17mil).
  
  
• It's a shrinking market.
  
  
• Major cities are planning a war against combustion engines.
  
  
• Although electric cars have a cool factor, electric motorcycles do not.
  
  
• Younger US generations totally lack enthusiasm for motorcycles in general.
  
  
• Motorcycle riders have a negative public perception.
  
  
• As cars get quieter, insular and loaded with high-tech safety features and wrap-around airbags, motorcycles appear as extremely a dangerous choice.
  
  
• The car buying trend in the US is now about ditching cars for SUVs. Meaning even more isolation from the road and the driving experience; that moves people further away from the motorcycling experience.
  
  
• Americans getting older and more overweight by the year (according to CDC 40% are now obese) and there is the opioid crises, neither of those support a more agile population wanting to ditch their SUVs for a motorcycle.

We Are Now a Movement
Our groundbreaking Woes series has inspired a team of moto industry professionals to openly discuss the issue of a shrinking market. The Los Angeles Times reported on this new movement inspired by our Woes series in an article titled, "No easy ride: Motorcycle industry is in deep trouble and needs help fast, panel agrees."

Great Endorsement
A major Euro importer and a multi-brand dealer shared this comment on our FB: "Smart articles about our industry. Dealers of European motorcycles are in the entertainment business. Ducati Woes story is spot on. Racing doesn’t sell bikes. I long for the TPG ownership marketing vision."

Future Automotive Buying Trends - Personal Transportation Revolution
Adding to above there are reports that automotive ownership will decline in coming years as more people opt for alternative means such as autonomous vehicles, car sharing (Zipcar, Maven), ride sharing (such as Uber, Lyft), short term leases and month-by-month leasing--which is the latest trend.

This new month-by-month leasing trend is already being offered by Ford, Cadillac and Porsche. Basically the participants only commit to one month at a time. No long-term commitment needed. So you can drive one car for a month, then try another for the next month and then another with all costs covered including insurance and maintenance, or drive the same car for many months within mileage limits. In most cases cars are delivered to and picked up from your location for free. So you can order a Ford in April, then pay more and book a Cadillac for May and increase your budget to order a Porsche for summer fun and go back to Ford if you feel like saving money the following month.

We're in the midst of a personal transportation revolution and the US moto market is missing out on it.

Tough Love
Out of deep love for our sport and for the industry, the Woes series was created to help revive the US moto market and suggest ways to reverse or at least slow down the negative sales trend. The focus of the Woes series is only the US market.

Our Woe's series was launched with a real bang, an epic 6-part Harley's Woes article. It received tens of thousands of hits, new subscribers and many forwards of our MOTO eMAG. The Woes series is basically a direct, no-nonsense, industry focused analysis and report on popular moto brands for the all-important US market. This is what we, the marketing types, share with executives of major brands. You see, you can sell a basic scooter anywhere in the world but a $15K+ 1000c+ bike can find home only in a few select countries and the US is one of the biggest markets. After Harley's Woes, we covered another favorite brand that used to be owned by H-D, MV's Woes, and then a brand that H-D actually was very hot on buying in Sept '17, Ducati's Woes. The 4th brand is Harley's longtime rival Indian's Woes. After that it was the entire US industry in US Motorcycle Industry's Woes. Then BMW's Not So Woes.

March 11, 2022 UPDATE

The Illusion of Growth Sustained by the Pandemic – Will it Last? Does it Matter?
Back in the early days of the pandemic I wrote that it’s going to create the biggest cabin fever of the century. The pandemic forced people to flock to all things outdoors and luxury. It was as though they woke up and become aware of their mortality. All outdoors related industries experienced massive growth. The pandemic may have saved our small but precious premium motorcycle market too—for now. A simple glance at the 2021 sales numbers would suggest that our industry is back. Things are looking good. Numbers are up across the board.

I am happy that things are looking up for a change for the US market, but will this boost in sales last? It’s a safe bet that the US premium moto market will not crash hard post pandemic. The market, naturally, will gradually stabilize. I suggest waiting a full 3 years post pandemic to get a real sense of the market’s biometrics. This means that if we’re fully over this nightmare by the end of this year, the 2025 sales figures (revealed in 2026) will show the real health of the industry. In the meantime enjoy the ride.

Record Setting Year for Many Industries
All outdoors and transportation (land, air, water) related industries are experiencing growth and the sales of pretty much every motorcycle brand is up. Ducati hit 60K for the first time, and BMW reached close to 200K in sales. However, no other press release from any brand on any product in any industry that has experienced growth due to the pandemic padded itself on the back except for BMW. Ducati smartly mentioned that the growth is due to people needing to have fun and to get out of doors. BMW on the other hand said, we grew because we have a hard-working team. It’s not their fault, they just can’t help it. BMW’s strength is in sales strategy, they don’t get marketing and don’t write good Press releases.

2021 was an incredible year for diverse industries, not just automotive. Here are some headlines. Private Jets: “Some of the leading global private jet companies have reported record sales in 2021.” Boats: “New boat sales were up 30 percent compared to the 2020.” Yachts: “The superyacht sales market was positively booming and it looked like new yacht sales over 30 metres (100 feet) would exceed the full year 2021.” Fishing: “The fishing equipment market has experienced three consecutive years of growth, according to The NPD Group.” Luxury Cars: “Bentley had record year and a 31% increase from 2020. Another VW brand, Porsche, sold 301,915 vehicles, an increase of 11%.” I can keep going, but I think it’s becoming clear that the growth in all these industries wasn’t related to their unique and “hardworking teams,” it’s about the sling shot effect of people reacting to the pandemic and the lockdowns.

March 1, 2023 UPDATE

2022 Motorcycle Industry Sales Recap. As Prediced.
B am on MotorcyclesData.com website right now and glancing at all the headlines about how wonderful the 2022 has been for almost all the regions in the world. MotorcyclesData (not a sponsor) is a site that we tap into to get the pulse of global motorcycle sales, including that of the US.

Check Out Some of These Glowing Headlines:
Italy 2022. On Top of Europe with the 8th Growth in a String.

India 2022. +13% Fueled by Electric Scooters Demand.

Argentina 2022. At Highest Level in 5 Years.

Mexico 2022. The 9th Record in a String.

Great Britain 2022. Steady Up.

Until We Get to the US:
"United States 2022. Motorcycles Market is Steady Declining, -5.6%."
Various words and phrases come to mind right now and the one I am going to go with is, “I told you so.” The short-lived pandemic boost is quickly fading--as I predicted. The glory days of the US motorcycle market is behind us. Not “maybe,” but “is” behind us. Our motorcycle market, as we relate to it, was built by the baby boomers and is going to fade with them. It was 6 years ago when I shocked our industry by sharing this highly unpopular topic with my “Woes” Series.

MotorcyclesData.com report on the US sales in 2022, reads like a page from MOTO. I am not surprised that they have reached the same conclusion in regard to the trajectory of our industry (BTW they are subscribers), because, like us, they aren’t beholden to advertisers, hence, they can say it like it is. That’s why in their title they use the phrase “steady decline.”

Is There any Good News I Can Share?
Yes, the used bike market! I have been encouraging our dealers, for years, to create a robust used and certified preowned divisions. Harley very smartly started their own used division, granted the Euro bike volumes are way too low here for the likes of BMW or Ducati to follow suit, but embracing the used market should be a priority for retailers. My editorials from the past 2 issues about us experiencing the pinnacle of ICE bikes also relate. ICE bikes are not going to get any better, that’s why they keep increasing the displacements. A 10-year-old motorcycle is as good as a new one. I would theorize that the first gen, 2010, BMW S1000RR is still an amazing superbike. That was launched 13 years ago. Or, any Ducati Diavel is going to be a fun bike around town, regardless of age. Or, Harley baggers are eternal, no matter the year. I see a lot of H-D baggers in SoCal and that look of pride and satisfaction on the face of their riders (they never wear full face helmets) is very apparent. Or, the K1300S (ended production 10 years ago) will always be the ultimate hyper bike for the premium crowd. Or, a GS is a GS is a GS is a GS, regardless of the age. There is a rumor that BMW is planning a R1300GS, this is a clear indication of an industry having reached its zenith, it has no place to go but to dumb it down. When the only hope to be different or to appear as new is a slight bump in displacement, you know the game is over.

Any Other good news?
Yes, the parts, accessories and maintenance segments. What separates US motorcycling market from the rest of the world is that we only ride for leisure. Exclusively! That’s the key reason our used bike market is packed with like new, low miles, garage queens at the fraction of the cost of new versions. These bikes still need parts, accessories and maintenance. Although our new bike market may remain stagnant, but the used bike field (with better insurance rates) should continue to thrive, and their new owners may want to customize them.

How About One More?
OK, Euro bikes! Before the big crash of the US motorcycle industry in 2008, we were delivering over a million units a year. At that time BMW was selling about 9K unit in the US. After the crash as our volume dropped by just over 50% to about 500K units, BMW was still selling about 9K units a year. What’s wrong (or right) with this picture. The answer is simple. Euro bikes are such marginal players that they cater only to a select and rather consistent diehard fans. Ducati, for example, has been selling to the same US buyers for the past 20 years, that’s why they can’t make a dent in our market, however, their volume is rather consistent (no matter how small). Euro bikes are going to be future-proof for the US market.

June 7, 2023 UPDATE

Q&A: The Absence of Credibility in Our Industry
P.J.B. in Nebraska, Noreply eMail
Thanks for the latest e-rag; read it top to bottom (front-to-back?). Your articles gave me a perspective I did not have before when peeking in on the other motorcycle e-mags. First thing I realized was the similarity in prose for roll-outs. Practically word-for-word from the press packet. Second thing was the dearth of insight. All sorts of clever word plays, but no clear opinion. I read your stuff to learn more and broaden my perspective. Thanks - it's a treat!

EDITOR: What a great writeup. Thank you! I am glad that I was able to shine a light to the disaster that is our so-called (non-) media. We are the only industry that has sold out 100% to big corps in numerous ways. Even our annual sales reports are a joke. Only one company has access to the US motorcycle “sales” report and that is basically in cahoots with the brands, that’s why it’s called Motorcycle INDUSTRY Council. You have to pay them just to read the annual numbers, that are number of bikes shipped to dealers, not new bikes registered with the DMVs or even bikes sold by dealers. All sales data for almost every industry in the world is readily available, except for US motorcycles! No other industry works in such secrecy with no accountability. It’s all one big sham. The reason being, it’s a tiny, irrelevant market with no oversight. So, no one cares. 500K annual units of mostly very cheap bikes, point to an industry being operated under the radar. Does it matter? No! We get what we deserve.