Harley's Woes - Parts 1 - 24 (4/18/24)

PART 1 (May 21, 2017):
The US motorcycle market is truly weird. We are a country of 320M and last year we purchased 17M new cars, SUVs and pickups. However, in the same year we bought about 490K motorcycles, including scooters and three-wheel vehicles (down from over a million units in '07). The US moto market is shrinking and with new generations showing little interest in anything other than gadgets and video games it wouldn't take Nostradamus to see where our future is heading. In a previous article, Bless the Boomers, we explained that the boomer generation is responsible for creating a massive outdoors-loving industry, such as riding, flying, boating, fishing and classic cars. With the boomers retiring and gradually passing on these markets will weaken a great deal in the US.

Harley is in a very difficult predicament. 1. They are the American motorcycle industry since they own half of the market. 2. And they are the brand that boomers made popular. So the shrinking market and post-boomer generations have direct impact on them. Harley's sales were down last year by about 4% and this year they are already down by 5.7%. No matter how you feel about H-D motorcycles they are integral to the health of our industry. We'll be watching the Harley sales charts very closely as they are the litmus test for our industry.

PART 2 (June 21, 2017):
In our previous issue we discussed Harley's woes. A company that is too dependent on baby boomers and with that generation retiring or passing on and new generations show little interest in their bikes, H-D sales are dropping. Although many of us in the US moto industry predicted Harley's market shrinkage a long time ago.

After our Part 1 article of this story we got some comments online. One person said it's the demographics, there isn't anything you can do. To that comment we say, that's what Oldsmobile thought as well. If any brand thinks that way they might as well close shop now.

The issue of demographics change is constant and has been around since the industrial age began. But great automotive companies that survive, such as Cadillac, learn to shape new models to changing tastes. However, H-D's big dilemma and what makes them so appetizing to the American rider is their classic look and feel. A new Harley with a super modern look and performance of a BMW is not going to go too well. In fact Harley's own attempt at a modern bike, the V-Rod, basically didn't turn out a great success.

Three Ideas
So we've come up with 3 ideas on how H-D can maintain a healthy profit margin in these trying times. These ideas are tongue-in-cheek so for you hardcore HOG fans don't fly off the handle.

1. Harley-Davidson Burger Franchise
What are Harley's most valuable assets? It's image, what it represents and millions-strong community. And what is one of the most popular, successful and profitable American enterprises? Burger joints. Create a chain of Harley-Davidson quality burger franchise similar to Shake Shack or 5 Guys. Yes, a notch above Macky D's of the world. The Harley-Davidson global burger franchise, if executed well, will create a massive growth for the brand. In fact we estimate it could become one of the most successful burger franchises yet.

I envision the interiors to use massive (wall-wrapped) landscape images of drone footage of H-D bikes (in the distant) riding the wide open roads and scenery of the great American West. No close up of riders or bikes to be seen anywhere and no bikes on display either, because the focus is not people or bikes but ideals of freedom, independence and vast American open roads with drop dead gorgeous scenery.

2. Harley Rebadged for Asia
The biggest two-wheel market in the world is not the US, it's in India and Southeast Asia. They buy tens of millions of small bikes and scooters a year. 20 million units are sold in India alone. That's why all Euro brands are rushing to that market. In fact Honda motorcycles sells about 10m bikes a year worldwide and only around 100K in the US. What they buy in the millions in that region are cheap but reliable scooters and small displacement bikes (not big bore machines), however a lot of those riders like the image of H-Ds.

We recommend to Harley to collaborate with a major local manufacturer and rebadge certain models for that market. We also suggest scooter options as well.

3. Marriage of Old and New
To attract the Gen X and younger generations, create a merging of best of two-worlds: a new Sportster with cutting-edge rider-assist electronics package, similar to what's available on Ducatis. H-D already works with Brembo on ABS. The idea here is very well thought out by us. No one wants a H-D that looks like it came from a sci-fi movie. The key is a marriage of the classic look of H-D and state-of-the-technology features. This is the same idea behind BMW's R nineT.

Complete Product & Marketing Plans
We have complete concepts plus detailed marketing plans for the above ideas and for many more suggestions.

Conclusion of Part 2
As we wrote in our last issue, no matter how you feel about H-D motorcycles they are integral to the health of our industry. We'll be watching the Harley sales charts very closely as they are the litmus test for our industry.

PART 3 (July 6, 2017):
Our Harley's Woes articles have been the most popular yet. We aren't really surprised as Harley is the US motorcycle industry, since they own half of the market and they're also the most iconic image of American riders by a long shot. In Part II we explored 3 interesting options for H-D to regain profitability.

Also in a previous issue we brought you news that VW/Audi is planning to sell Ducati and we explained the reasons in detail.

Right after our Harley's Woes II, the news broke that H-D is seriously considering buying Ducati. In fact they seem to be the front-runner in a bidding war.

In Part III, we explore the pros and cons of Harley's ownership of Ducati or "Harley-Ducatson."

The Pros & Cons of Harley-Ducatson
Considering the overall US moto market shrinkage due to baby boomers retiring or passing on and Harley's much smaller footprint we aren't surprised that they are thinking of acquiring another brand. But is Ducati right for H-D?

This isn't the first time that Harley has decided to buy a sportbike company; in fact it would be the 3rd. First it was Buell and we all know how that turned out. Then the rather embarrassing brief ownership of MV Agusta, which worked great for MV, since H-D paid off all their debt and then gave the company back to the late Claudio Castiglioni for only 1 Euro. One would wonder what H-D was thinking of acquiring a brand that sells just a thousand or two units a year in the US and has only 40 dealerships? Also there is zero connection between Harley and MV riders. In fact a typical H-D rider won't even fit on a MV F4. Ahhh, but no one ever said the moto market was based on logic.

Now they are thinking of buying Ducati. Which is basically just a more popular version of MV. Ducati footprint in the US is minimal. They have about 140 dealerships and sell roughly 9000 units in the US on a good year. Although Ducati introduced the XDiavel cruiser for the American rider there is still little connection between typical H-D and Ducati buyers.

On the other hand BMW, Honda and H-D touring riders are quite simpatico. But the merging of those 3 brands is out of the question. Honda is a massive motorcycle brand that sells about 10mm units a year globally and BMW motorcycles is the pride of Bavaria and BMW Group would never part with it. They'd rather shelf it than sell it.

If Harley was smart they should have acquired the Indian brand and just shelved it and prevented it from being a competitor, but with Polaris ownership that option is no longer on the table.

Harley-Ducatson - Pros

  • The H-D ownership (we hope) will allow Ducati to continue making some of the most advanced and exciting production bikes in the world.

  • Although there is little chemistry between brands, but H-D could make Ducati XDiavel, Diavel and Scrambler line available at its massive North American dealer network. That would offer quite a boost for Ducati NA.

  • H-D could also provide some of its sportier models such as the Sportster available in Ducati dealerships in Europe.

  • H-D may also be able to help Ducati expand market share in the US by providing them with a healthy US marketing budget. This is an option that Ducati NA hasn't had.

Harley-Ducatson - Cons

  • Technically advanced companies such as BMW and Ducati burn up a great deal of funds on R&D. It's possible that in order to make Ducati somewhat profitable H-D would curtail their spending and that would be bad news for Ducatistis everywhere.

  • H-D may do Ducati harm if they don't commit to the brand long term. A year or two stint and then dumping the brand will not be healthy for Ducati.

  • H-D ownership may turn off a lot of Ducati fans and provide a negative effect and actually reduce Ducati's footprint.

Conclusion of Part 3
Financial news agencies reported that VW is looking for about 1.5B Euro for Ducati and although initially there were a few buyers, including India's Bajaj and TVS, but the selection has been narrowed to Harley and a couple of venture capitalists.

Harley-Ducatson will not be the worst case scenario, it may actually work if H-D allows Ducati to be as exciting, forward-thinking and advanced as they are now. But if they start meddling with Ducati's core principals, then it's arrivederci time for Ducati. Let's not forget as soon as Harley took over MV Agusta, the late and great Ducati/MV designer and co-founder of BIMOTA, Massimo Tamburini, promptly "retired." As always will keep you updated with the latest on this developing story.

PART 4 (August 6, 2017):
Our Harley's Woes series has been by far our most popular story to date. It has received many thousands of clicks and set a record for the number of forwards. Part 4 is the final chapter on Harley's Woes probably for this year. However, our "Woes" series will continue covering others brands such as Ducati, BMW, MV, Yamaha, Indian and Triumph for the US market; which is one of the most important sales regions in the world for large displacement, premium motorcycles.

In our previous three chapters we explained how HD's almost exclusive reliance on baby boomers has made it vulnerable and faced with both shrinking US moto market and pool of new Harley buyers. We also offered three ideas in how H-D can bounce back. In Part 3, we covered the pros and cons of Harley buying Ducati; we called it Harley-Ducatson. We are not in favor of it. Ducati is not the right brand for Harley and we explained why. We have become aware that after the release of our Pros & Cons of Harley-Ducatson, H-D decided to back out of bidding for Ducati. That's a good thing. In our final chapter we cover a possible worst case scenario of Harley's future and its impact on the US industry.

Harley's Woes: Worst Case Scenario

Used Market Glut
Harley-Davidson has been owning half of the US motorcycle market for a very long time. This means depending on the year and health of the market, they shipped anywhere between 200,000 to 450,000 units a year to their US dealers alone. And that translates to tens of millions of Harleys sitting in people's garages and in used moto lots across the country.

With baby boomers retiring or passing on, more lightly-used Harleys are becoming available and this glut of shiny low-mileage used H-Ds will haunt the growth of the brand for the foreseeable future. Adding to this woe is that there is very little distinguishing design difference between Harleys of various model years. The used bike market glut by itself could massively shrink Harley's US market growth.

Since the topic of Part 4 is Worst Case Scenario, let's explore that.

A World Without New Harleys
With tens of millions of low-mileage HD's already owned and on the used market and younger US generations not being interested in motorcycles at all or even if they are, they tend to look for cheaper, lighter, sportier or dual-sport bikes, it's very much possible that H-D may decide to shut down. In that case they'll take the US moto market with them.

A stroll through any US motorcycle event, whether the IMS show or smaller bike shows, proves how deeply the US moto industry as a whole is dependent on Harleys and cruisers in general. If Harley closes, it will take just a few years for 70% of all vendors to also close shop. Initially the market will get flooded with unsold new Harleys and that will cause their asking price to go rock bottom. Although the used cruiser market will exist for a decade or two but eventually the interest in these large, heavy cruisers will wane completely with generational shift.

In Harley's absence the US moto market will shrink to under 200,000 units a year and potentially keep on shirking. Such a tiny market (compare to 17 million for cars, SUVs and pickups) will not be able to sustain high paying jobs and eventually will become just a hobbyist industry.

Conclusion of Part 4
As I've mentioned above, regardless of your personal feelings toward Harleys in general, the continuation of the US moto market depends on the survival of this brand. And there is no scenario that suggests with Harley gone more people will decide to buy MVs or Ducatis or even BMWs. The market will gradually disappear.

Motorcycle Industry Council issues annual statistical reports. In their report on 2016 they stated that number of two-wheel owners over 50 have doubled to 46% from 10 years ago. On the other hand, ownership by those under 24 has been cut in half to about 6%. This is exactly an opposite trend, US youth aren't into bikes anymore.

So, let's hope H-D is going to follow one of our suggestions from Part 2 to maintain a healthy profit margin. Grass-fed Harley-Davidson burgers anyone?

PART 5 (September 7, 2017):
After 4 articles, we thought we were done covering Harley's Woes for now. However, as we were ready to focus on a new brand in our Woes series, we got hit with a few bits of news worth discussing. Standard business practice for downtimes is of course belt-tightening, consolidation and downsizing and H-D is doing all that.

Last week we learned for 2018, H-D has reduced the total number of models. They have also merged the Dyna and Softail Big Twin lineups, which has made the purist not too happy but makes sense to Wall Street. I don't think Harley diehards realize the severity of the situation.

Automotive history is paved with hundreds of brands that are no longer around. We're talking cars and bikes. Back in 1950's to '70s multitude of British moto brands roamed the American streets, now there is only one, Triumph. Visit any high-profile car show and you come across absolutely gorgeous brands that are no longer around. Just because a brand has cult following there is no guarantee for its survival if the business environment doesn't deliver.

The Death of V-Rod
The main reason for the addition of Part 5 to the article is the death of V-Rod. Yes, H-D has removed V-Rod from 2018 model lineup. This decision however, has had almost no impact on the purists since they never really cared for this modern Harley; hence its timely demise.

As mentioned previously, Harley's allure is its classic look and feel. The other reason for its popularity is Harley's millions-strong community. When you buy a Harley you don't just buy a motorcycle you become part of a lifestyle and a massive community of riders. The allure works for many who may have boring jobs but when they hop on that hog, wearing the leathers, they feel like a million. You can't buy nor bottle this type of religious worship of a brand. There is only one other American brand that relishes on this level of absolute hardcore fanatic fan base and that's Apple.

V-Rod's demise is a good example of what not to do going forward and signals that Harley isn't thinking of creating a line of futuristic bikes as some may have wrongly suggested.

Conclusion of Part 5
Harley-Davidson is getting hit with bad news from various angles, these include:

  • Baby boomers, its core buyers, are retiring or passing on.

  • Baby boomers are selling their lightly-used Harleys in droves.

  • There is now a massive low-mileage used Harley inventory competing with new bike sales. H-D apparently has informed their dealers to embrace used bike sales as well.

  • Younger Americans showing very little interest in bikes.

  • Younger buyers who actually are interested in bikes are looking for cheaper, lighter, sportier or dual-sport.

  • Younger buyers who actually are looking to buy a H-D, avoid new bikes all together and tap into the ever-increasing used Harley market, where a like-new Harley can be had for 1/3 of the original MSRP.

Considering the above, the death of the unpopular V-Rod seems like a logical move and we can certainly expect more downsizing news from H-D.

We'll update this article as soon as there is major development.

Complete Marketing Plans
We have complete concepts plus detailed marketing plans for the above ideas and for many more suggestions.

PART 6 (August 8, 2018):
The Blessed Union
Harley is in uncharted territory. It wasn't long ago that they were selling at above MSRP and H-D couldn't make them fast enough. Now the US market has cooled off to them. There's news about Harley that necessitates a Part 6 to our wildly popular Woes series. Harley has dropped again in the 2nd quarter by 6.4% in the US. So far they're down by 8.7% for the year.

Around the same time as the news of the slowdown, they released a bunch of concepts as a way to show that they're serious about future growth and re-energizing the US market. However, the plan includes different style of bikes, some of them really weird. The truth is Harley-Davidson was never really in the motorcycle business, at least not since the '80s. Harley is an extremely successful belief system, a type of a cult, a very popular magic cult that turns ordinary folks into superheroes just by hopping on their machines.

Harley, An American Success Story and One of the Biggest Turnarounds in Automotive History
Harley may not sell in the millions of units like Ford and GM but they are a huge American automotive success story. The brand's name and logo are world-renowned and the badass image they represent is a highly valuable commodity.

The boomers made Harley what it is today and with them moving on beyond their riding age that has placed the motor company on very peculiar grounds. This is a brand that never had to work too hard to move bikes, so much so that in the past dealers were faced with such high demands that they were charging above list.

H-D's Core Issues with the US Market

1. H-D relies almost entirely on the baby boomers.

2. The boomers are moving on from riding and retiring.

3. The younger American generations show little interest in motorcycles regardless of method of propulsion.

4. The retiring boomers have created a glut of used Harleys. The numbers are in the tens of thousands and growing. These are like-new, low miles, all dolled up Harleys looking for buyers and are being sold at 1/3 of MSRP.

A Tale of Two Hogs - It's Hot Being American Overseas
As the US cools on Harley the rest of the world seems to be getting excited about them. Harley is actually doing OK overseas. They sold about 40K units in Europe and roughly about 30K in Asia in 2017. In fact they sold 95K units outside of the US last year. These are good outside US numbers.

The Future of Motorcycling is in Asia and Europe
As a lifelong rider it's hard to admit and I know for many of you it's equally difficult to read, but the future of motorcycling is not the US. It is in Europe and Asia

There is no scenario to suggest that there will be turnaround for demand of new motorcycles in coming years, regardless of propulsion method. Although millennials are notoriously anti bike, there is no indication to suggest that the Gen Z following them will be different.

This generational shift is unique only to the US. Also the used moto market here is thriving. The market for used bikes here is very populated. However, since we gauge our industry by new bike sales only, a thriving used bike environment doesn't help how we are viewed.

A Case for Harley-Ducatson
Ducati is ripe for picking again. VW is indicating that they'll let it go to the highest bidder under certain conditions. In Part 3 above I cover the pros and cons of a Harley/Ducati merger, which I've named Harley-Ducatson. However, that article was written over a year ago and a lot has changed since.

I am now fully in support of the merger, in fact I believe that these two brands are made for each other.

The Blessed Union of Harley-Ducatson

  • Both brands are cultish.

  • They are worshipped and treated like holy statues in their respective countries and elsewhere.

  • Both brands are seeking global growth outside of their respective countries.

  • Ducati needs US marketshare growth and Harley needs their presence in Europe to expand.

  • Ducati is the Harley of Italy, more so now that they have American style cruisers.

  • Ducati's large European distribution can assist H-D to grow there. Harley's massive US distribution likewise can help Ducati to expand here.

  • Harley's brief ownership of MV Agusta was just a warm up for Ducati ownership.

  • Ducati is many times larger than MV and is much more suited for a merger. The MV was just a bad choice, even though the idea of Euro brand purchase was the right one.

  • Harley needs Europe for their Livewire electric motorcycle. The US market slowdown is not related to method of propulsion, it's just a reject of bikes.

  • Electric motorcycles are the future of riding in Europe and Harley can benefit a great deal by having a Euro partner like Ducati.

  • I foresee two wedding receptions, in Borgo Panigale and Milwaukee, and wouldn't be surprised if the Pope attends this historic holly matrimony.

End of Part 6.
The next chapter in Harley's Woes will cover their Livewire all electric motorcycle and it's global market potential, plus a complete analysis of all the concepts they introduced in July of 2018.

PART 7 (September 6, 2018):
Harley's LiveWire E-Moto

Why would a brand that's globally recognized for its V-twin engines with their unique "potato potato" sound launch an e-moto? Why would such an icon that made its fortune on a simulated image of "badass" riders who like to rev their straight pipes and wake up the dead, go silent in hopes of new buyers? Why would a brand that's supposedly about machismo, thunder and lightning go after tree huggers? Is LiveWire e-moto a brilliant disaster or just plain brilliant?

Just Plain Brilliant If You're in Europe
Harley is onto something really big with the LiveWire, but the magnitude of this potential hit will be based on how they market this new e-moto. I hope they don't blow it.

As explained in previous parts above, Harley's future is not in the US but is in Europe and Asia. They are enjoying a nice reception there with 95K units sold outside of US in '07 (that number includes Canada and South America too). Considering the very high price of fuel in Europe, they're especially eager to embrace electric power. By contrast in the US gas is relatively cheap. Also as explained in our other Woes articles motorcycle buying in the US is based on the masculinity index and e-motos are at the bottom of the scale, whereas Europe doesn't have such perception issues on elec motorcycles.

The Motorcycle Brands Masculinity Index is brand indicator and not rider indicator. US riders are attracted to brands with higher levels of perception of masculinity.

With H-D's LiveWire we have a brand with the highest level of perception of masculinity but a model that carries the lowest marks. However, these rankings are only relevant to the US market.

Premium motorcycles are not about need or value, but want and desire. US maybe cooling off to Harley but the rest of the world is just beginning to discover them. And since the future of premium electric motorcycles is in Europe, LiveWire can find a very nice market waiting for them in that region.

The key is creating demand, Apple and Tesla style. Yes, it's going to be all about the image and the cool/snob factor.

LiveWire: A New "Status Symbol" in Europe and Elsewhere
Harley should treat the LiveWire as a 100% standalone brand not to be found at any Harley dealerships at all (for the first 3 years), but only at newly built super sleek LiveWire boutiques in trendy parts of major European cities and a few key US metro areas. Why would a well-to-do 28-year-old motorcycle enthusiast want to stroll into a traditional H-D dealership and walk past 150 old school bikes just to find a single LiveWire way in the corner? Harley has to go where these guys shop, they will not come to H-D.

This brand delineation would be similar to how BMW launched the MINI: independent in locations, store design, attitude of sales staff (younger, hipper), many car customization options and unique, more youthful apparel and accessories offerings. This will be the key to LiveWire's success but with the marketing savvy of Apple or Tesla.

Harley should build a totally new lifestyle and image around this bike. In the same way that they successfully mated the typical biker dude to their gas powered bikes, but here the image is urban and rich. Same guys who want to flaunt their Ferraris, customized Mercedes, Porsches or Teslas will get attracted to the LiveWire if H-D delivers on the image presentation and places the bikes in the neighborhoods that they shop.

LiveWire's Success Will Be Fully Reliant on Image (Apple/Tesla Style)
Listen up Harley, as the saying goes, stick to your guns and don't rush this new marvel to market without being fully prepared. A list of suggestions is below.

LiveWire Marketing and Launch Suggestions

  • A standalone product sold only via newly built totally dedicated sleek lifestyle boutiques in trendy parts of major European cities.

  • Boutiques should be sleek, luxurious and youthful.

  • Make no connection to Harley gas powered bikes or their dealerships.

  • Create a brand new line of Euro-centric LiveWire apparel and riding gear. Miles apart from typical H-D offerings.

  • Offer the LiveWire in many different colors. Go for style and image.

  • Create easily swappable painted parts at the new hot showrooms.

  • Allow buyers to customize their LiveWire with factory colors and graphics options.

  • Set premium pricing to help create status symbol.

  • The LiveWire's brand relation to H-D's regular line should be similar to how BMW launched the MINI as a totally independent brand, fully customizable cars with their very own unique and youthful image, showrooms, sales attitude, accessories and apparel.

  • Get the young global celebs heavily invested in the LiveWire. Regardless if they ride or not, they can still praise the bike for being hip and green and a definite must have.

  • Old Harley had Willie G, Apple, Steve Jobs and Tesla has Musk. LiveWire needs a new spokesperson. I'd bet on a female, a young Euro type, American brunette tomboy.

What About the US Market
The only way the US can rebound on the shrinking motorcycle market is if the Gen Zs, who are following the millennials, wake up one day and collectively say: "We are so bored of this constant super high tech lifestyle, amazing video games, millions of streaming options, everything delivered to our front doors at any time, hook up culture and legal weed. We want to forget them all and start doing something different like riding motorcycles." Then they think, "oh wait, I am allergic to pollen" or "my parents said never go near motorcycles" or "what do you mean I can't Uber LiveWire?" or "my mood altering meds don't allow operating vehicles." You can be sure this fantasy scenario will never happen especially when your toaster now talks to your phone.

The shrinkage of the US moto market will continue even though motorcycle use will increase in many other parts of the world. The US motorcycle market slowdown is not related whatsoever to method of propulsion; it's simply a matter of generation shift. Having said that, Harley could place LiveWire showrooms in select high-profile districts in 2 or 3 major US cities, just to save face--they are an American brand after all. But the real market for it is in Europe.

Complete Marketing Plans
We have complete concepts plus detailed marketing plans for the above ideas and for many more suggestions.

PART 8 (July 3, 2019):
Let the Rebadging Begin
It's becoming a routine statement on MOTO, but "we do love it when brands listen." Our game-changing Woes Series was launched over 2 years ago to focus attention on the shrinking US market. At the time it was a radical editorial but has since proven to be prophetic. In Harley's Woes, I originally offered 3 suggestions for H-D to combat their market losses. My favorite is still Harley Davidson Premium Burger Franchise--this idea is dynamite. It'll go big overseas too. I've heard from a dealer that H-D is considering it and is open to be approached by a suitable partner. Harley's strength is in the brand itself and their future may lie in total licensing deals.

The 2nd idea was to work with Asian companies to create small and cheap rebadged motorcycles for that market and they've done exactly that. H-D has partnered with the Chinese motorcycle company Qianjiang to license the H-D brand on small displacement, Asian market only, motorcycles. If this is executed well, with the right price structure, they could potentially sell tens of thousands of Chinese-made H-D bikes in that region annually. I wouldn't dismiss scooters either.

Harley is the only motorcycle brand that has successfully associated itself with freedom and badassery. These are globally popular ideas. Asian riders may be willing to pay a small premium for the Bar and Shield logo.

As for the burger franchise, I envision the interiors to use massive (wall-wrapped) landscape images of drone footage of H-D bikes (in the distant) riding the wide open roads and scenery of the great American West. No close up of riders or bikes to be seen anywhere and no bikes on display either, because the focus is not people or bikes but ideals of freedom, independence and vast American open roads with drop dead gorgeous scenery.

PART 9 (July 24, 2019):
LiveWire Psychosis (What Not to Say in a Press Event)

"Wealthy, youngish, urban early-adopters, with a desire to be associated with luxury brands." That's how H-D management introduced the LiveWire target audience to a bewildered group of motorcycle press who thought they had inadvertently walked into a Louis Vuitton product release. Those of us in marketing are of course very familiar with such terminology as they're part of the dialog between an agency and the brand it represents. However, this is inside jargon and should never be used on the press who come to your motorcycle release event hoping to hear phrases like: it's our most powerful model yet; it's a technical marvel; it can do 0-60 in 2.7 or I can ride it all day--I think you get the picture.

The other factor that's confusing the press is the bike's base price of $30K. Look, LiveWire is going to be part of a new electric segment at Harley, which will include a selection of models in various sizes and prices. However, being the first gives it the "halo" effect. Halo effect in automotive world means your top dog. Halo is the prestige model and sky is the limit. So the first LiveWire is priced right. I can see future custom versions with even higher price tags and of course smaller Asian made variants for $5K. Also H-D very smartly is keeping the production numbers to a bare minimum; only a few hundred units to be shipped to dealers. This is from a brand that can easily move 20K baggers.

PART 10 (October 9, 2019):
Is LiveWire a Flop Already?

There is a line that you've seen me use when a brand follows the recommendations of our wildly popular Woes Series: "We love it when brands listen." That's not even remotely the case here. As predicted H-D is botching the release of their new pride and joy offspring the LiveWire. Reuters published a bombshell report on the LiveWire this week. The report states that the new e-moto has been a failure already. It says, H-D dealers don't want to bother with the LiveWire when they have so many unsolds on the floor already, and it's going to be winter soon in many parts of the country and the LiveWire hasn't even been delivered yet. It also states the obvious that the small number of people who have pre-ordered the bike are current H-D customers and not the rich millennials that Harley had hoped for.

I've addressed the launch of the LiveWire in Harley's Woes Part 7. I suggested that H-D should not release the bike at its dealer network for the first 3 years. They need to treat this tiny marvel as a standalone brand and set up hip and stylish LiveWire boutiques in fashionable districts of major metro areas of Europe and the US. Why would a well-to-do 28-year-old motorcycle enthusiast want to stroll into a traditional H-D dealership and walk past 80 old school bikes just to find a single LiveWire way in the corner? This painfully obvious point is being echoed by the Reuters. Is it too late for H-D's electric ambitions? I'll wrap this up with a quote from Reuters: ”Grappling with an ageing customer base and the waning charm for its big bikes, Harley has failed to post sales growth in the United States - its biggest market - in the past four years."

PART 11 (November 13, 2019):
BMW & H-D Cross-Invade Stronghold Territories

Harley as a brand is strong; you can find their logo on whiskey as well as underwear and everything else in between. However, H-D as a motorcycle company is in trouble. Harley has an obligation to its stockholders to prove that they're doing all they can to dampen their market losses--going on for a few years now. So they looked over the stats for new bike sales and noticed that the US Adv market is not doing bad, why not make an Adv bike; "that should certainly boost our sales," so they thought. H-D is the undisputed king of large displacement cruisers. No one else can even come close, but all their past attempts at trying to break into other markets have failed terribly. Think V-Rod, Buell, MV, Alta and I am going to add LiveWire to that list too. (Consider that motorcycle prophecy.) I wish Harley luck with Pan America ;), but frankly their future lies in rebadging of Asian models that I already wrote about in Harley's Woes 8 and brand placement only.

BMW on the other hand is having a ball. They're planning to release a beautiful Harley clone next year at a time when the market for big cruisers is gradually dying off. But does it matter? This baby is not about stats or sales charts, it's about BMW lubricating their mojo and keeping the needle on the passion meter as close to 11 as possible. Frankly, I am impressed with how BMW AG has been handling the slow and methodical tease of the R18. We all know this is no competition for their mighty GS line of bikes and in fact in may only move a couple of thousand units globally. So what, just look at it? Talk about halo effect! I've covered the R18 a few times already, also shared spy shots of the fully dressed model as well. R18 models will compete with the H-D Fat Boy and also the bagger. Bring it on BMW.

PART 12 (April 7, 2020):
Harley Wants Its Safe Space

At the end of February, on a Friday afternoon, Harley announced that they have parted with their CEO. Typically Friday afternoon Press releases are meant to draw the least amount of attention for the brand, as they hope the news will be forgotten by Monday morning. Rumor has it that some Harley board members (like most of us) don't see a growth solution in their new one-off prototypes (such as their ADV bike). They want to focus on the core signature products and also on expanding their brand placements. All of that is what I recommended in my latest Harley's Woes articles on this page.

PART 13 (May 5, 2020):
Harley Wants Its Safe Space II

Harley seems to be coming to its senses post the departure of their CEO. They have now vowed to follow our Harley's Woes editorials methodically. J/k on the Woes thing, but they might as well have said that. There is only one obvious direction for H-D and I've been writing about it for 3 years. They finally got the message with project Rewire. They'll focus on expanding branding efforts, concentrate on regions that matter (hint outside of the US) and stick to what works (no more silly prototypes in segments they don't even understand). Good for them. Now can they deliver?

PART 14 (August 5, 2020):
1st Half of the Year Report

I like H-D's new back to basics corporate direction. I've been preaching it for 3 years. Their recently departed CEO was way overzealous and suffered from "look what I can do" complex. He kept adding new models in segments no one asked or wanted. I like their new management team, with their getting back to the core of who we are message; I hope they last. H-D is down roughly by about 30% at home and about the same amount globally. They borrowed 350M, fell off the S&P 500 and plan to let go of 700 people. The thing that worries me the most is not the reduction of motorcycle sales, but the gradual lack of interest in their branded products. H-D logo used to be among the most recognizable in the world. People who had no interest in bikes whatsoever, liked to show off the Harley logo on hundreds of products just to say, I may have a boring job but I'm a "badass" on the inside. To keep a brand alive it must survive the generational shift. The brand must appeal to one generation after another in perpetuity (like Ford pickups) otherwise it will suffer from what I call the Oldsmobile Effect. As soon the next gen doesn't want your product, it's game over.

PART 15 (March 17, 2021):

H-D Pan America - Beyond Retro - Part 1

We all know what's beyond Ludicrous Speed, it's Plaid. But do you know what's beyond Retro? It's the new Pan Am. The hottest segment in both the auto and the motorcycle industries is the SUV. We of course call them the ADV, but it's the same category. Every car brand, even the Ferrari (to be released in about a year) and Aston Martin, has one. In our own market H-D, until now, was the only major brand that didn't have an ADV model, so it's totally understandable that they would want to tap into this segment, even though they have no business doing so. As a public company that isn't doing well, they would not have been able to explain to their shareholders the absence of such a model, hence I don't blame them for trying. And just a try it will be. I predict that H-D will file for bankruptcy within 3 years. If it can happen to GM, it can happen to any brand. The restructuring helped GM; it might also assist H-D with cleaning house and focusing the product line even more.

This new Harley has interesting specs; clearly they worked very hard to try to match the stats of BMW's big GS (market leader). They in fact aimed to up it in 2 areas, more power and a suspension that lowers itself when you stop the bike to make it easier to reach the ground. Clever new tech? Yes and no. It's a new tech for the US moto industry but it's not owned by H-D (AFAIK), therefore could easily be utilized by other brands if proven worthwhile. The auto industry has had height adjustable suspensions for decades, even the new 'Vette has one.

Premium motorcycles do not sell based on specs alone. Harley knows that just too well, since they were the king of the US market for so long delivering underpowered, overweight, overpriced machines by the tens of thousands. We, the premium buyers, buy into brands, not specs. V-Rod also had pretty good specs, with Porsche design engine and so on. I found it to be crude and primitive with a terrible rear suspension that constantly hit my spine and spongy uninspiring brakes (couldn't wait to get off of it). Point is, the world of real motorcycling is years ahead of the Harley, not that Harleys aren't real, they just aren't in sync with our timeline. Their massive appeal has always been nostalgia mixed with machismo and those buyers aren't around any more.

If you're wondering who's the target buyer for the new Pan Am, it's designed to keep current H-D riders from flocking to brands such as BMW and Kawasaki, since this bike will not attract buyers from other brands. I'd be very pleased if H-D proves me wrong, however, considering that all my predictions have so far proven right, it's an unlikely scenario. BTW, don't look to our press to offer an opinion on the Pan Am. As I'm sure you're aware by now, they're all owned by major corps. With H-D being a huge advertiser, you can be sure H-D's buttocks will be sufficiently smooched, no matter what they put out.

When I saw the new Pan Am, to me it looked like a bike from the '80s (hence our cover for issue 99), then I thought it's even older than that, it's Beyond Retro. If I place it in a lineup of WWII military vehicles it will fit right in (above image), whereas a new GS or a Duc Multi will look like a spaceship. To be continued.

PART 16 (April 14, 2021):
H-D Pan America - Beyond Retro - Part 2

In Part 1 of this article on H-D's new entry into the well-established and popular ADV market, I explained in painful detail why the Pan Am is a miss. The hardest (sometimes even impossible) thing in the world of premium motorcycling is penetrating new untapped market segments. When a brand like H-D, that is known for over a hundred years only for large old-school cruisers, tries to act like it's BMW all of a sudden, it just won't work. Even if its new offering wasn't so offensive to the eyes, it has no chance. Harley is done making bikes; it's just a matter of time. Its future is in global branding and licensing management and rebadged bikes such as the new small CC models currently being built in India by Hero utilizing H-D logo and a similar venture with a Chinese factory.

How to Conquer Previously Untapped but Well-Established Market Segments
The benchmark and textbook example of how to do this right is BMW's first ever entry into the modern superbike world, the S1000RR. Yes, the 1970's R90S is also technically a superbike, but it wasn't designed to conquest riders from other brands. I was a marketing and communications consultant to BMW for 10 years, from 2002 to 2012. The last 6 years were full-time as the Digital Director. Initially I began as a brand expert to the marketing agencies that supported BMW, but I gradually took over. I formed my own small agency and worked with BMW directly. Generally speaking, marketing & advertising agencies don't care if they are pushing laundry detergents or Ducati. They rely on experts in each industry to make it all work.

The S1000RR was launched in 2009 as a 2010 model. Even those at BMW were surprised at how well built and trouble free this brand new model was off the gate. Shocking really! That's because back in 2004 when BMW first released the K1200S (a Hyper bike, also a brand new model segment for them), it was plagued with issues causing a 6-month delay to the release. The issues were never fully resolved until the updated K1300S was introduced in 2009. I had passed on buying the K1200S (not refined enough), but grabbed a K1300S as soon as it was possible (even though it had its own minor teething problems for the first year).

We launched the RR at the height of my involvement with BMW. Since we were only a 2-person marketing team (the marketing and communications manager and myself) we naturally handled every detail of the yearlong pre-release events, the launch and then the marketing in addition to the sales and press support for the RR. So, what made the S1000RR such a success from a brand with no prior experience in building Japanese style superbikes and specially from BMW that was known as a builder of bikes for old college professors and engineers. How did BMW get this bike so right? They stopped drinking the Kool-Aid, meaning they threw brand arrogance out the door and researched the heck out of the global superbike market. We were contacted for detailed analysis of the US sportbike riders as early as 2004. These included providing images and videos of riders and events, their habits, brand loyalties, customization, the concepts of street cred, bragging rights and so on.

BMW knocked the RR out of the park, because they found a market segment asleep at the wheel. The Japanese had become so complacent in their decades long total dominance of the superbike market that they weren't really trying. By introducing Bosch rider's aid tech to superbikes, which BMW was already using on their other top-tier bikes anyway and cleverly designing a controversial but instantly recognizable winking front headlights (a gimmick), plus a MSRP of only $15K mixed with great power delivery, effortless cornering (it corners by itself as if autonomous) and comfy ergos it became a legend.

In direct contrast the current ADV market is thriving and is extremely advanced. No one is asleep at the wheel waiting for H-D to save the day. There are more examples of failures in new market penetration by premium brands than wins. The new H-D Pan Am is a fail, so is the BMW R1800, as was the long-forgotten BMW G450X dirt bike (it was in and then out in just about a year and never made it to the state of CA). Over and out!

PART 17 (May 12, 2021):
H-D is Following Our Lead with LiveWire + Major Tariff in EU

H-D had a good Q1 in the US (slingshot effect), however, they are getting hammered really bad in EU. The EU leadership seems to have a bias against them. They have hit Harley with a massive 56% tariff (as of June 1) on all their bikes regardless of where they are made. This means a Harley that had a price tag of 20K Euro is now 31.2K, plus a high VAT (sales tax) on top of that. H-D can't recover from this and they'll most likely lose the Euro market.

LiveWire: In this popular column a couple of years back I mentioned that H-D should not sell the LiveWire at their dealerships. They should instead create separate sleek boutiques in urban shopping areas. And H-D announced they are planning to do just that, by turning LiveWire into its own brand to be sold via unique showrooms. Gotta love it! Next, bring on the Harley-Davidson Premium Burger franchise. I have all the plans for this idea in this Woes series.

PART 18 (October 12, 2022):
H-D’s Livewire IPO? LVWR:NYSE

H-D not only followed my advice (and gave me no credit) and split Livewire into a separate company that can bypass the traditional H-D dealerships and remain a standalone product, but they also spun it off in a SPAC deal, creating the first publicly traded electric motorcycle co. It's currently at around $8/share (that's $8 too much). I don’t think market analysts can tell a difference between electric cars or motorcycles, it’s all automotive to them, if they did, they wouldn’t be so anxious about Livewire. Livewire isn’t going anywhere. It has no chance of real success (as in hundreds of thousands, let alone millions of units). The brand will gradually fade away. People in the US ride for passion and for being a part of something cool, or perhaps to feel more empowered, or more macho, or feel that they aren’t some bore during the week, or just to hang out with people who like to wear the same badass outfits. Electrics do not check any of the above boxes. The success of premium motorcycling in the US is about making the riders feel like a badass. Can an e-moto do that? Not for another 8 years.

PART 19 (December 7, 2022):
H-D’s Livewire IPO? LVWR:NYSE - 2

H-D’s separate Livewire IPO will fail and Livewire will shut down. A week after I made this claim investors pulled nearly $400M out of Livewire and made that stock crash. It’s hovering below $6, but that’s $6 too much. Harley, pay close attention here, you seem to be surrounded by tech and banking guys (and our sell out media who will kiss your butt no matter what), not real riders and you’ve lost your way. [que in church organ playing softly in the background] There is no shame in dying peacefully of old age in your sleep, after having conquered the US motorcycle industry for so long. You can always just run a merch shop or follow my awesome idea of a global Harley-Davidson Premium Burger franchise. It will go gangbusters, especially in Asia (only if you follow my theme). As for motorcycles, Chapter 11 within 2 to 3 years, is not too farfetched.

PART 20 (January 18, 2023):
"Do you truly not see any future for Harley as a motorcycle company?" (Issue 120 - Livewire will Get Shutdown)

I live in SoCal, the largest motorcycle market in the US. By far the most common brand on the road here is H-D, followed by UJM and an occasional BMW. I finally spotted my one and only Livewire. What a disappointment! Talk about a non-bike with no street presence. Who at H-D thought that the future answer to their iconic Baggers and the Fat Boy is a little nothing of a motorcycle called Livewire. The brand’s success was purely and solely based on one phrase, “machismo.” The pitiful Livewire is the exact opposite. It is obvious they vastly underestimated the demand for BEV premium bikes.

PART 21 (March 8, 2023):
The Sad Slow Decay of Harley-Davidson

There is nothing wrong with dying of old age, peacefully in your sleep. I’ve been writing my unfinished requiem for H-D for a few years. I am aware that as a public company they need to project they care about the future of the brand, but if the pathetic Livewire is their solution, the Roman bathtub ritual would be a much better swan song for the brand than dragging the once powerful bar and shield through this mud of shame and disgrace. The Livewire is the most embarrassing vehicle project currently being pushed by a major automotive brand. It is exactly the opposite of what made H-D great.

PART 22 (September 20, 2023):
Harley No More

According to MotorcyclesData.com, Harley is no longer the king of sales in the US. Honda has taken over that spot. Harley used to have 50% of our market and now they can’t even be the top player. The thing about Harley, and I have been writing about it for a few years, is this: they aren’t a brand, they are a lifestyle. As the lifestyle faded away, so did the brand and NOTHING can bring it back. I predicted H-D filing for bankruptcy in the next couple of years and I hold to that prediction.

PART 23 (January 18, 2024):
Harley No More - 2

Last report from H-D stated that they were down by about 15% for the US market and -16% globally. As I predicted, Harley will file for bankruptcy protection in the next couple of years. They don’t get the fact that their time in the spotlight is over.

PART 24 (April 18, 2024):
What Went Wrong at Harley-Davidson?

I predicted H-D’s demise about 6 or 7 years ago, in my Woes Series. The news from Harley hasn’t been good for years. Like other brands, they did get a quick bump during the pandemic, but I knew that wouldn’t last. Their attempts at electrification have severely backfired, as the number of Livewires sold in a year can fit in one small motorcycle dealership.

H-D is a Visually Impaired Person, being Guided by a Blind Dog

What happened? I’ll make this as simple as possible. Harley-Davidson is a lifestyle company that also makes motorcycles. With the H-D lifestyle no longer relevant, their motorcycle division is crash landing hard. I say it again, there is no shame with gradually shutting down this once venerable brand with dignity and grace, but they won’t do that until the brand is fully denigrated. As long as the brand is alive, high executive salaries will roll.



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